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confidence curve

German translation: Konfidenzkurve

GLOSSARY ENTRY (DERIVED FROM QUESTION BELOW)
English term or phrase:confidence curve
German translation:Konfidenzkurve
Entered by: gofink

16:35 Dec 15, 2016
English to German translations [PRO]
Bus/Financial - Mathematics & Statistics
English term or phrase: confidence curve
Overconfidence is an unwarranted faith in one's beliefs, judgments and abilities.
 When assessing uncertainty, it can lead to very inaccurate probability estimations.
 One way to measure overconfidence is using the ****overconfidence curve****.
 The ****overconfidence curve**** compares the subjective confidence that a person has in an event with the proportion of times their judgement is actually correct.

Example: Suppose you asked somebody how likely it is that it might rain on a certain day. The person would have different probability estimates for different days of the week. You could make a note of all these subjective judgements and compare it with the days on which it actually rained.

Let's say there were five days when he thought that there was a 10% chance. It rained on only one of these five days. We mapped the subjective confidence of 10% to the objective probability of it raining on days that the decision maker thought the likelihood of rain was 10%, and get one mapping between a subjective confidence and objective frequency.

 We repeat this exercise for the other days on which the decision maker had different estimates for the probability of rain
 We look at the days when the decision maker thought that there was a 20% chance of rain and map that to the objective frequency of rain
 We look at the days when the decision maker thought that there was a 30% chance of rain and map that to the objective frequency of rain and plot all the points
 When we connect the points, we get the decision maker's ****confidence curve****. One of the common findings is that people are under-confident when the probability of an event is low, and overconfident when the probability of an event is high.


Wie würdet ihr hier "confidence curve" und "overconfidence curve" übersetzen?
Olaf Reibedanz
Colombia
Local time: 23:04
Konfidenzkurve
Explanation:
Konfidenzkurven wurden bereits in den vierziger und fünfziger Jahren zur flexiblen
Interpretation statistischer Daten vorgeschlagen. Für diskrete Verteilungen werden in der
Regel approximative Konfidenzkurven berechnet. Alternativ schlagen wir vor, zur Konstruktion
von KOIifidenzkurven gleichmäßig trennschiüfste unvelfälschte KOl1fidenzintervalle zu
verwenden. Die resultierende exakte Konjidenzkurve beruht auf geneLUen und optimalen
Wahrscheinlichkeitsaussagen . - see http://www.qucosa.de/fileadmin/data/qucosa/documents/14754/1...
Selected response from:

gofink
Austria
Local time: 06:04
Grading comment
Vielen Dank!
3 KudoZ points were awarded for this answer



Summary of answers provided
4Konfidenzkurve
gofink


Discussion entries: 3





  

Answers


7 hrs   confidence: Answerer confidence 4/5Answerer confidence 4/5
Konfidenzkurve


Explanation:
Konfidenzkurven wurden bereits in den vierziger und fünfziger Jahren zur flexiblen
Interpretation statistischer Daten vorgeschlagen. Für diskrete Verteilungen werden in der
Regel approximative Konfidenzkurven berechnet. Alternativ schlagen wir vor, zur Konstruktion
von KOIifidenzkurven gleichmäßig trennschiüfste unvelfälschte KOl1fidenzintervalle zu
verwenden. Die resultierende exakte Konjidenzkurve beruht auf geneLUen und optimalen
Wahrscheinlichkeitsaussagen . - see http://www.qucosa.de/fileadmin/data/qucosa/documents/14754/1...

gofink
Austria
Local time: 06:04
Native speaker of: Native in GermanGerman
PRO pts in category: 15
Grading comment
Vielen Dank!
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