Glossary entry

English term or phrase:

likelihood of

French translation:

propension

Added to glossary by Cassandra Delacote
May 9, 2019 12:30
5 yrs ago
1 viewer *
English term

likelihood of

Non-PRO English to French Other Safety Policing criminal statistics
Context:

Crime statistics for xxx jurisdiction, disaggregated by area, seem to confirm that reported crime is indeed high in Area 47.
Area 18, another high-density area with formal settlements, also registered a high crime rate.
This could be attributed to the proximity of Area 18 to yyyi, another informal settlement which borders Area 18.
Further, many houses in Area 18 are not fenced, which provides easier access to potential thieves.
Together, these two areas make up 30% of crimes recorded at (xxx).
These statistics have not yet been contrasted with accurate population data, but this does seem disproportionate.
Of course, this could also reflect variances in the likelihood of populations living in Areas 47 and 18 reporting crime, in comparison with those living in informal settlements.

In reality this question is not strictly about the above term, but about the best way to translate or even really understand the following passage:

"Of course, this could also reflect variances in the likelihood of populations living in Areas 47 and 18 reporting crime, in comparison with those living in informal settlements."

Firstly, areas 47 and 49 ARE informal settlements themselves, which makes me think that their crime statistics should be compared to formal settlements, not informal settlements.

Secondly, even apart from that issue, I just can't seem to find an elegant way of expressing this sentence in French.
"Ce taux de criminalité élevé pourrait refleter la différence de probabilité que les populations vivant dans les zones 47 et 18 signalent les crimes, par rapport à ceux qui vivent dans [d'autres] établissements informels. "

I would be happy to have your suggestions.
Change log

May 9, 2019 14:35: Yvonne Gallagher changed "Level" from "PRO" to "Non-PRO"

Votes to reclassify question as PRO/non-PRO:

Non-PRO (3): GILLES MEUNIER, mchd, Yvonne Gallagher

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Discussion

B D Finch May 10, 2019:
Not variances, but variations The writer seems to be confusing the term "variance" with "variation"!
Anne Bohy May 10, 2019:
crime ou délit ? (Note to Asker) "Crime", dans ce contexte, ce sont plutôt des délits, à mon avis (ça n'exclut pas les crimes, ça les englobe). Et il s'agit plus vraisemblablement d'un taux de délinquance que d'un taux de criminalité.
Elisabeth Richard May 9, 2019:
il faudrait plus de contexte pour pouvoir juger de la cohérence de l'original. Par exemple, le taux de criminalité a-t-il généralement tendance à être plus élevé dans les zones officielles ou non officielles ? Juste avec cet extrait je ne trouve rien de spécialement contradictoire à regrouper les deux zones au plus fort taux de criminalité, même si elles appartiennent à deux catégories différentes. Ce n'est pas non plus spécialement clair, mais c'est l'ensemble du document qui devrait permettre d'en juger.
polyglot45 May 9, 2019:
unless this is a comparison with the average for all informal settlements ?
That said, it is clear from the text that 18 is formal

Proposed translations

+1
14 mins
Selected

propension

je suggère quelque chose comme ceci:
une propension différente à porter plainte (en fonction des populations)


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Note added at 1 hr (2019-05-09 13:34:55 GMT)
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En réponse à l'objection de François Boye, si effectivement probabilité est le terme statistique, en terme de taux de criminalité et de dépôt de plainte on emploie fréquemment le terme propension. Cf les deux liens suivants, dont le 2ème bien que clairement de nature statistique, emploie les deux termes :
http://www.justice.gouv.fr/statistiques-10054/etudes-statist...
http://www.justice.gouv.fr/art_pix/1_stat_Eco_stat_448F.pdf
Example sentence:

Cet écart peut aussi refléter une différence de propension à porter plainte

Peer comment(s):

agree Christian Fournier : J'aurais mauvaise grâce à ne pas être d'accord
16 mins
aha en effet ! :)
disagree Francois Boye : ce n'est pas le terme technique de la statistique
35 mins
Malgré l'emploi de 'variance', dans ce contexte si, c'est le terme qui est fréquemment utilisé, dans la recherche comme dans les textes officiels.
agree mchd
1 hr
merci ! :)
Something went wrong...
4 KudoZ points awarded for this answer. Comment: "Merci à tous de vos suggestions, mais cette réponse m'a été la plus utile! merci beaucoup."
+1
6 mins

Probabilité, éventualité

Probabilité, éventualité
Peer comment(s):

agree Francois Boye : Probabilité est le terme technique de la statistique
41 mins
agree Bridget Jean
1 hr
agree GILLES MEUNIER
1 hr
disagree Christian Fournier : l'usage de "likehood" et non de "probability" laisse à penser que l'auteur ne s'exprime pas en termes de statistique
1 hr
disagree Samuel Clarisse : Idem ce ne sont pas des statistiques...
2 hrs
Something went wrong...
+1
8 mins

propension

variations dans la propension des populations ... à signaler les crimes et délits...
Peer comment(s):

disagree Francois Boye : ce n'est le terme technique de ls statistique
40 mins
agree Elisabeth Richard
49 mins
Merci Elisabeth - un prêté pour un rendu
agree mchd
1 hr
Merci mchd
Something went wrong...
33 mins

les chances

likelihood of populations reporting crime
Something went wrong...
+1
2 hrs

Prédisposition

Pour ma part, j'adore ce mot et je pense qu'il s'imbriquerait parfaitement dans ce texte.
Peer comment(s):

agree ormiston : et moi j'aime cette tournure moins lourde
41 mins
Something went wrong...
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