The moment when, 50 years ago, Neil Armstrong planted his foot on the surface of the Moon inspired awe, pride and wonder around the world. This newspaper argued that “man, from this day on, can go wheresoever in the universe his mind wills and his ingenuity contrives…to the planets, sooner rather than later, man is now certain to go.” But no. The Moon landing was an aberration, a goal achieved not as an end in itself but as a means of signalling America’s extraordinary capabilities. That point, once made, required no remaking. Only 571 people have been into orbit; and since 1972 no one has ventured much farther into space than Des Moines is from Chicago.
The next 50 years will look very different. Falling costs, new technologies, Chinese and Indian ambitions, and a new generation of entrepreneurs promise a bold era of space development. It will almost certainly involve tourism for the rich and better communications networks for all; in the long run it might involve mineral exploitation and even mass transportation. Space will become ever more like an extension of Earth—an arena for firms and private individuals, not just governments. But for this promise to be fulfilled the world needs to create a system of laws to govern the heavens—both in peacetime and, should it come to that, in war.
The development of space thus far has been focused on facilitating activity down below—mainly satellite communications for broadcasting and navigation. Now two things are changing. First, geopolitics is stoking a new push to send humans beyond the shallows of low-Earth orbit. China plans to land people on the Moon by 2035. President Donald Trump’s administration wants Americans to be back there by 2024. Falling costs make this showing off more affordable than before. Apollo cost hundreds of billions of dollars (in today’s money). Now tens of billions are the ticket price.
[ … ]
It is a mistake to promote space as a romanticised Wild West, an anarchic frontier where humanity can throw off its fetters and rediscover its destiny. For space to fulfil its promise governance is required. At a time when the world cannot agree on rules for the terrestrial trade of steel bars and soybeans that may seem like a big ask. But without it the potential of all that lies beyond Earth will at best wait another 50 years to be fulfilled. At worst space could add to Earth’s problems. | 50年前,尼尔•阿姆斯特朗把脚踏上月球表面,引起了全世界的敬畏、自豪与惊叹。这家报纸称:“人类从那一天起就可以到达他们想去的宇宙任何地方。抵达任何星球都只是时间迟早的问题。现在正是人类出发的时刻。” 但其实不然。登月是一个失误,其本身并不是目的,而是一种对美国非同寻常能力的昭示。那一点一旦实现就无须重来。只有571人曾经进入过行星轨道;而且自1972年以来没有人比来自芝加哥的迪斯•莫埃斯对宇宙的探索更为深远。 接下来的50年将会显得迥然不同。成本降低,新科技出现,中国人和印度人雄心勃勃,新一代的冒险家们许诺一个大胆探索的宇宙开发时代即将到来。这个时代当然几乎会涉及针对富人的旅游活动和针对所有人的通信网络改进。太空会变得更像对于地球的延伸——就像一个为公司和私人提供的竞技场,而不仅仅是服务于政府机构。但要想实现这一愿景,全世界需要创设一套新的法律制度来管理天界——不仅在和平时期也在可能到来的战争年代。 这种空间开发因此目前着力于促进下列活动的进展——主要是用于播报和导航的卫星通信。现在有两件事正发生改变。首先,地缘政治正在激发一种把人类送往地球低轨道阴影的推动力。中国计划在2035年前把人们送往月球。唐纳德 特朗普总统政府则希望美国人在2024年之前重返月球。成本降低使这种炫耀比过去更容易实现。阿波罗计划花费了数千亿美元(按照今天的行情)。现在的门槛价格则是数百亿美元。 [......] 把太空计划作为一项浪漫化的西部拓荒计划去推行是一个错误。那里处在一篇无政府的混乱状态中,人性可以摆脱束缚,并去重新发现命运。为了让太空实现其愿景,政府的管理是有必要的。当世界不能就地面上的钢铁和豆浆交易达成共识时,貌似大的问题就会出现了。但是如果没有那样的时候,所有超越地球的潜能最好也要再等50年才能实现。最坏则是开发宇宙空间将加剧地球的问题。 |